Why pet product stores experience stable AOV year-round

Pet retail AOV is remarkably stable

Pet supply stores often see AOV stability that surprises founders from other categories. While fashion might swing 40% between seasons and gift stores see holiday spikes, pet retail AOV tends to stay within a narrow range year-round.

Understanding why creates better forecasting and appropriate benchmarking.

The needs-based purchasing driver

Pet purchases are driven by consistent animal needs, not human whims.

Non-discretionary consumption:

Pets need food every day. Litter needs replacement on schedule. These aren’t optional or mood-dependent purchases. The pet’s consumption rate determines purchasing, not seasonal feelings.

What this means for AOV:

Customers buy what their pet needs, not more or less based on season. A dog that eats 30 pounds of food monthly needs 30 pounds in January and 30 pounds in July.

This needs-based nature creates AOV stability that discretionary categories can’t match.

Replenishment cycle consistency

Pet consumables follow predictable replenishment cycles.

Regular intervals:

Customers reorder food every 4-6 weeks. Litter every 3-4 weeks. Treats and supplements on their own schedules. These cycles create consistent order patterns.

Order composition stability:

Each replenishment order contains similar items at similar quantities. The basket doesn’t vary much cycle to cycle because the pet’s needs don’t vary much.

Track order composition consistency. Pet retail should show high similarity between a customer’s orders over time.

Limited promotional impact

Promotions in pet retail affect behavior differently than in other categories.

Stocking up limits:

Customers might stock up slightly on shelf-stable items during sales, but storage and product freshness limit this. You can’t store six months of fresh pet food.

Promotion response:

Promotions might shift timing (order a week early to get a discount) more than order size. The pet still needs what it needs.

Promotions might affect revenue timing more than total revenue or AOV. Track how promotions shift orders versus grow orders.

The product mix stability

Pet stores tend to have stable product mixes that support consistent AOV.

Consumables dominate:

Food, treats, and supplies often represent 70-80% of pet retail revenue. These consumables have stable, predictable purchasing patterns.

Gear is periodic:

Beds, toys, and gear are purchased occasionally but don’t dramatically swing AOV. A customer buying food plus a toy has slightly higher AOV, but not transformatively higher.

Track your consumable versus gear mix. High consumable percentage supports AOV stability.

Why this stability is valuable

Stable AOV has significant business advantages.

Predictable revenue:

When AOV is stable, revenue forecasting becomes more reliable. Customer count times AOV gives predictable revenue.

Marketing efficiency:

Stable AOV means customer acquisition math is consistent. You don’t need to adjust for seasonal AOV swings when calculating CAC payback.

Inventory planning:

Consistent order sizes simplify inventory planning. You can predict demand based on customer count without seasonal size adjustments.

When AOV does vary

Even stable pet retail sees some AOV variation. Understanding when helps interpret data.

Holiday pet gifting:

Pet gifts (premium treats, toys, accessories) might lift AOV slightly during holiday periods. This is real but typically modest.

New customer orders:

First orders might have different AOV as customers test products or buy initial supplies. Track new customer AOV separately from returning customer AOV.

Pet life events:

New pet adoption triggers higher initial spending. Track customers who appear to be new pet owners.

Pet type affects baseline AOV

Different pets have different cost structures affecting AOV.

Dog versus cat:

Dogs generally cost more to feed and supply than cats. Dog-focused stores or customer segments will have higher AOV than cat-focused ones.

Exotic pets:

Specialty pet supplies (fish, reptiles, birds) have their own AOV patterns based on species-specific needs.

If your pet type mix shifts, AOV might shift too. Segment AOV by pet type to understand true trends.

Subscription impact on AOV

Subscription programs affect measured AOV.

Subscription AOV:

Subscription orders might have different AOV than one-time orders. They might include only subscribed items or include add-ons. Track AOV by order type.

Subscription stability:

Subscription AOV is even more stable than one-time AOV because the order composition is locked in.

Price changes affect AOV

Pet food price changes affect AOV without changing customer behavior.

Cost pass-through:

When product costs increase and you raise prices, AOV increases even though customers buy the same quantities.

Separating price from behavior:

Track unit quantities alongside AOV. This distinguishes price-driven AOV changes from behavior-driven changes.

Benchmarking pet retail AOV

Given stability, how should you benchmark?

Narrow variation expectations:

Month-to-month AOV variation of 5-10% is normal. Variation over 15% should trigger investigation.

Segment-appropriate benchmarks:

Dog-focused stores might see $50-80 AOV. Cat-focused stores might see $40-60. Multi-pet stores blend these.

Track trends:

Gradual AOV increases might reflect price increases, successful cross-selling, or customer mix shift. Gradual decreases might indicate competitive pressure or customer behavior change.

Metrics to track for pet retail AOV

Focus on these AOV-related metrics:

Monthly AOV versus rolling average. AOV by customer type (new vs. returning). AOV by pet type segment. AOV by order type (subscription vs. one-time). Unit quantity alongside dollar AOV. Consumable versus gear mix. Holiday period AOV lift (if any).

Pet retail AOV stability is a category strength. Understand it, monitor for meaningful deviations, and use the predictability for better business planning.