What to expect from traffic in early spring

February traffic: flat. April traffic: growing steadily. March traffic: unpredictable. Early spring is a transitional period when traffic patterns shift from winter mode to spring mode, but the transition isn’t smooth. Understanding what drives early spring traffic variation helps you set appropriate expectations for this in-between period.

Early spring—roughly March through mid-April—sits between post-holiday recovery and established spring shopping patterns. Weather, tax season, and shifting consumer psychology all affect traffic during this window.

What drives early spring traffic

Multiple factors influence this period:

Weather variability

Early spring weather is unpredictable. Warm weeks inspire spring shopping behavior; cold snaps revert to winter patterns. A sunny 65°F week drives outdoor and fashion traffic. A snowy week delays spring shopping. Week-to-week traffic variation often correlates with weather variation.

Tax season timing

Tax refunds arrive for many filers in March and April. Refund deposits create spending capacity that drives traffic and conversion. The timing varies—early filers get refunds in February, others in April. This staggered refund arrival creates extended but uneven traffic boost.

Post-winter psychology

After months of winter, customers feel ready for change. Spring cleaning, wardrobe refreshes, and new beginnings drive browsing behavior. The psychological shift from winter hibernation to spring activity increases shopping motivation.

Spring break effects

School spring breaks occur throughout March and April depending on region. Break weeks might reduce traffic as families travel, or increase traffic as people have time to shop. Your pattern depends on whether your customers travel during breaks or shop during them.

Easter timing

Easter falls in late March or April depending on the year. The weeks before Easter bring gift and celebration shopping. Easter timing significantly affects which weeks in early spring show elevated traffic.

Expected traffic patterns by week

General early spring progression:

Early March

Often still feels like late winter. Traffic might be flat or slightly improving from February. Weather-dependent variation is high. Early tax refunds start providing spending boost for some customers.

Mid-March

Spring shopping begins in earnest. St. Patrick’s Day creates minor spike for relevant categories. Weather improvements (in most regions) support increased browsing. Traffic typically starts showing clear improvement from February baseline.

Late March

If Easter is early, pre-Easter traffic builds. Spring break travel might reduce traffic in certain weeks. Tax refund spending continues building. Weather-driven shopping accelerates as spring arrives more consistently.

Early April

Tax deadline approaches, affecting some customers’ attention. If Easter is late, pre-Easter shopping peaks. Spring shopping is fully established. Traffic typically shows sustained improvement over winter baseline.

Mid-April

Post-tax-deadline relief for some customers. Post-Easter normalization if Easter was early-to-mid April. Spring shopping patterns are now established. Traffic stabilizes into spring baseline that continues through May.

Category-specific early spring patterns

Different products see different patterns:

Spring apparel and fashion

Early spring is prime discovery time. Customers explore spring collections. Traffic builds steadily as weather improves and spring wardrobes become relevant. This category sees strong early spring traffic growth.

Home and garden

Weather-dependent timing. First consistently warm weeks trigger garden planning and outdoor furniture shopping. Traffic can spike suddenly when weather turns. Cold springs delay the traffic surge.

Outdoor recreation

Similar to home and garden—weather triggers activity. Camping, hiking, and outdoor sports traffic builds as weather permits. Early spring is preparation and planning period.

Fitness and wellness

Secondary resolution spike as weather enables outdoor activity. Customers who abandoned January fitness resolutions sometimes restart in spring. Moderate traffic boost from renewed motivation.

Gift categories

Easter drives gift traffic for relevant categories. Mother’s Day (May) preparation begins in late April. Early spring gift traffic depends heavily on Easter timing.

How to interpret early spring traffic variation

Contextualize the data correctly:

Compare to same period last year

Early spring 2024 versus early spring 2023 is meaningful comparison. Month-over-month comparison conflates seasonal transition with performance. Year-over-year reveals actual change.

Account for Easter timing

If Easter was March 31 last year and April 20 this year, March traffic patterns will differ significantly. Adjust comparisons for Easter timing differences between years.

Consider weather differences

A cold March this year versus warm March last year affects traffic. Regional weather patterns explain some year-over-year variation that isn’t about your performance.

Watch weekly patterns, not just monthly

Early spring varies week to week more than other periods. Monthly aggregates might hide weekly patterns. Track weekly to understand the real rhythm.

Preparing for early spring traffic

Set up for the period:

Flexible staffing

Week-to-week variation means staffing needs vary. Build flexibility to handle variable volumes without over-staffing slow weeks or under-staffing busy ones.

Weather-triggered marketing

Consider marketing that responds to weather. Warm week ahead? Push spring products. Cold snap? Emphasize indoor comfort. Weather-responsive messaging matches customer mindset.

Tax refund awareness

Customers with refunds have spending capacity. Messaging that acknowledges this (without being crass) can resonate. “Treat yourself this spring” captures refund-enabled spending psychology.

Easter-relevant preparation

If your products are Easter-relevant, prepare merchandising and marketing for the pre-Easter window. Know this year’s Easter date and plan backward from it.

Common early spring traffic mistakes

Avoid these errors:

Expecting linear growth

Traffic doesn’t climb smoothly from February to April. Week-to-week variation is normal. Don’t panic about a slow week or over-celebrate a strong one during this variable period.

Ignoring weather effects

Attributing weather-driven traffic changes to marketing or site changes misdiagnoses the cause. Check weather before concluding that your changes caused traffic movement.

Forgetting Easter timing

Year-over-year comparisons without Easter adjustment mislead. A week-before-Easter this year might be normal week last year. Align comparisons to Easter-relative timing.

Over-indexing on any single week

Early spring weeks vary more than other periods. Drawing conclusions from one week is risky. Look at multi-week trends to understand actual trajectory.

Frequently asked questions

When does early spring traffic typically peak?

Depends on Easter timing and your category. Generally, mid-to-late March through mid-April shows the strongest early spring traffic. Peak week varies by year and product type.

How much should early spring traffic exceed winter?

Category-dependent. Spring-relevant categories might see 30-50% improvement over February. Year-round products might see 10-20% improvement. Calculate your historical pattern as benchmark.

Should I run promotions to boost early spring traffic?

Promotions can help, especially during slower weeks within the period. But early spring often has natural demand that doesn’t require heavy promotion. Balance demand capture with margin preservation.

How do I separate tax refund effects from spring effects?

Difficult to fully separate since they overlap. Conversion rate improvement with stable traffic suggests refund effect (customers have money). Traffic improvement with stable conversion suggests spring browsing effect (more interest). Both often happen together.